Continued Weakness in Freight Volumes Leads Analysts to Consider Recession

Freight volume through the first two weeks of July was “sluggish,” and that continues a trend that has been ongoing since February as talks of a freight recession manifest, analysts said.

In a recent update on the transportation industry, senior research analyst Benjamin Hartford and research analyst Andrew Reed, both of Baird, said the volume across all freight modes, including spot truckload, less-than-truckload, rail and international airfreight, has fallen in the second quarter of and into the third quarter, from the same periods in 2018.

Spot rates for dry van truckload fell 18.5% in June, according to DAT Solutions. The decline in rates has put pressure on contract rates for truckload and domestic intermodal pricing, Hartford and Reed said. In P.A.M. Transportation Services’ second-quarter earnings report, President Daniel Cushman said the Tontitown-based carrier has been challenged to retain existing customer rates to cover increased driver wages and other costs. The company has yet to reduce rates on existing lanes, but it’s not been able to add new business at margins similar to 2018, he said.

Contract rates rose in the 2019 bid season, but they face the risk of a decline in the 2020 bid season, during which Hartford and Reed expect rates to fall 5%.

Rail volumes have fallen 4.4% so far in 2019, and Hartford and Reed noted the tough comparisons start to ease in the second half of the year as rail volume rose 4.2% in the third quarter of 2018 and 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2018. Since January, intermodal volume has fallen 3.5% to 7.69 million intermodal units, according to the Association of American Railroads. In J.B. Hunt Transport Services’ second-quarter earnings report, revenue in the Lowell-based carrier’s intermodal segment fell 1% to $1.15 billion, from the same period in 2018. Volume fell 8% in the second quarter, with transcontinental loads declining 5% and Eastern network volumes down 11%. The intermodal segment accounted for more than half of the company’s total revenue and 64% of income in the second quarter.

Increased levels of inventories have contributed to the soft industrial and intermodal volumes, according to Hartford and Reed. Also, lower temperatures late in the first quarter and throughout the second quarter have impacted volumes. Inventory levels rose at a higher rate than sales in the second quarter, leading to an increase in inventory/sales ratios. The ratio was 1.32 in May, up from 1.28 in 2018, but the May levels were below five-year averages.

Capacity has started to leave the market with the closure of carriers, and net orders of Class 8 trucks, the largest class, have been falling. In a recent report, Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst for ACT Research, said the market is in a freight recession and expects spot rates to continue to fall in the short-term. “The good news is that for the first time in this cycle, we see evidence on the horizon for an eventual bottoming and upturn in spot truckload rates, thanks to low new truck orders and improving capital discipline from the trucking industry,” Denoyer said. “The Truckload Rate Gauge is currently signaling significant overcapacity, favoring shippers in rate negotiations. But based on our expectation for a decline in U.S. Class 8 tractor build rates later in the year, the supply side should begin to improve.”

Donald Broughton, the author of the Cass Freight Index, noted in the June report that the declines in the shipments index have been significant enough to ask, “Will the (second-quarter 2019) GDP be negative?” In June the shipments index fell 5.3%, while the expenditures index rose 0.9%.

With regard to the upcoming peak season, carriers expect a more average season, according to Hartford and Reed. Volume outlooks for the second half of the year have been reduced as demand has been weaker and truckload capacity has limited domestic intermodal demand. But outlooks have been stable.

This article was first found at Talk Business, and written by Jeff Della Rosa

Is a ‘relaxing’ of HOS rules on the way?

Motor carriers that have long been pleading for more flexibility in the federal government’s truck driver hours-of-service (HOS) rules may finally be getting their wish…maybe.

That was the key takeaway from a recent Associated Press report published last week that stated the United States Department of Transportation is taking steps to “relax” the current HOS rules, which many view as another example of the Trump administration’s de-regulation efforts, which are viewed favorably by business interests, if not safety interests.

This part is perhaps the key working thesis of the AP report, one that clearly is viewed as music to the ears of motor carriers and trucking circles around the United States: “Though no specific proposal has been released, the rules believed to be up for repeal involve daily limits on the number of hours a truck driver can be behind the wheel and a requirement for a 30-minute break during an eight-hour stretch of driving.”

As things currently stand now, the current HOS rules, which took effect in July 2013, are as follows:

  • the maximum number of hours a truck driver can work within a week was reduced by 12 hours from 82 to 70; 
  • truck drivers cannot drive after working eight hours without first taking a break of at least 30 minutes, and drivers can take the 30-minute break whenever they need rest during the eight-hour window; 
  • the final rule retains the current 11-hour daily driving limit (the FMCSA was considering lowering it to 10 hours) and will continue to conduct data analysis and research to further examine any risks associated with the 11 hours of driving time; 
  • truckers who maximize their weekly work hours to take at least two nights’ rest when their 24-hour body clock demands sleep the most—from 1:00 a.m. to 5:00 a.m. This rest requirement is part of the rule’s “34-hour restart” provision that allows drivers to restart the clock on their work week by taking at least 34 consecutive hours off-duty. The final rule allows drivers to use the restart provision only once during a seven-day period; and 
  • carriers that allow drivers to exceed the 11-hour driving limit by 3 or more hours could be fined $11,000 per offense, and drivers could face civil penalties of up to $2,750 for each offense

While motor carriers yearn for more flexibility in current HOS rules, in order to be more efficient, the report made it clear that safety concerns remain paramount, citing a May report issued by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), which said there were 4,657 large trucks involved in fatal crashes in 2017, a 10% increase over 2016.  

Those numbers don’t lie, that is obvious. But, at the same time, many carriers view them as so onerous that by following them to the letter of the law can make things unsafe, too. That said, it makes for a difficult situation on all sides.

It is unknown what the clear next steps are until more visibility is provided. But one thing for sure is that this situation is far from over. When the Electronic Logging Device (ELD) mandate took effect in late 2017, it did remove some capacity from the market, but not as much as was originally expected. And with the “boom” year that 2018 was in trucking, capacity was as tight as it has been, maybe ever.

In mid-2019, market conditions have changed as capacity has loosened and demand is not at the heightened levels of a year ago. But things can change quickly, especially in this market, and regulations often play a part in the reasons why. Will they again? We will have to see.

This article was first found at Logistics Management and written by Jeff Berman

Rules Governing Trucking Industry Need Flexibility

An Associated Press report last week told the story of Lucson Francois, a truck driver from Opal, Virginia, who was on his way home and had to stop five minutes away. He wasn’t out of fuel. He wasn’t broken down. He wasn’t sick.

Instead, rigid federal regulations that prohibit truckers from driving more than 11 hours a day required him to put on the brakes. Five minutes from home. And since he couldn’t leave the truck unattended, Francois parked and climbed into the sleeper berth in the back of the cab where he had to wait 10 hours before he could start driving again. Five minutes from home.

That’s just plain stupid.

Make no mistake. There needs to be regulations that control the number of hours a trucker can spend behind the wheel. The same AP story cited a May report from the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, an agency of the Transportation Department, stating that there were 4,657 large trucks involved in fatal crashes in 2017, a 10 percent increase from the year before. Sixty of the truckers involved in these accidents were identified as “asleep or fatigued,” although the National Transportation Safety Board has said this type of driver impairment is likely underreported on police crash forms.

Lack of regulations would most certainly lead to more problems since when it comes to truckers hauling goods and merchandise, time is money. But strict rules that required Francois and truckers like him to stop minutes from their destination and hang out for 10 hours before finishing the trip are ridiculous.

There needs to be some flexibility.

That’s a long-sought goal of the trucking industry. Interest groups that represent motor carriers and truck drivers have lobbied for revisions they say would make the rigid “hours of service” rules more flexible. The trucking industry, meanwhile, has developed a strong relationship with President Trump, who has made rolling back layers of regulatory oversight a top priority.

On the other hand, highway safety advocates say contemplated changes would dangerously weaken the regulations, resulting in truckers putting in even longer days at a time when they say driver fatigue is such a serious problem. Cathy Chase, president of Advocates for Highway and Auto Safety, said regulations that allow truckers to drive up to 11 hours each day are already “exceedingly liberal in our estimation.”

Maybe so. But hard-and-fast rules that require a trucker to stop only minutes from a destination are foolish. Off-duty and on-duty time for most truckers is recorded automatically and precisely by electronic logging devices, or ELDs, mandated as of December 2017 during the Obama administration. While some rules have been relaxed under Trump, this one remains.

Pro-truckers have pushed for changes, and last year they secured support from 30 senators, mostly Republicans. A May 2018 letter to Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration chief Ray Martinez urged more flexibility.

Rep. Anthony Brindisi, D-Utica, had this to say about proposed changes: “I look forward to evaluating the administration’s final proposal. We need common sense regulations that keep drivers safe but also don’t disrupt economic activity. I welcome all feedback on this issue from any concerned constituents and I’ll work with Democrats and Republicans to find the right solution.”

Your thoughts?

Tell Congressman Brindisi what you think about creating more flexibility for the trucking industry.

‒ Write: Rep. Anthony Brindisi, 430 Court St., Suite 102, Utica, NY 13502

‒ Access email at website: https://brindisi.house.gov/contact/email-me

‒ Phone: 315-732-0713

‒ Fax: 315-724-2472

This article was first found at uticaod.com and written by Observer-Dispatch

Trucking Companies, Utilities, and Innovators Work Together to Put More Electric Vehicles on the Road

One of the largest sources of climate pollution is the transportation sector, which is responsible for about a quarter of our nation’s greenhouse gas pollution. It is clear that to reach our climate goals, we must reduce car and truck emissions.

One way to reduce harmful air and climate pollution is by electrifying the transportation sector, especially long-haul trucks, buses, delivery vehicles, garbage trucks and regional “day cab” tractors used at ports. Heavy-duty vehicles are not only responsible for significant climate pollution, they are also responsible for about 30% of Nitrogen oxide pollution. These emissions can increase cancer risk, neurological and metabolic diseases, and cause respiratory and cardiovascular damage.

Toxic air pollutants like these are often hyper-localized, disproportionately impacting low-income communities and communities of color who are more likely to live near major highways, ports, and distribution centers. A recent EDF study of Oakland’s air pollution, for example, observed residents living near one particular freeway (home to much of the city’s diesel fueled traffic) were exposed to concentrations of black carbon 80% higher than a similar road.

Electrifying these medium and heavy-duty vehicles therefore reduces both pollution that harms human health and reduces greenhouse gas emissions from the combustion of the fuel. But making this win-win transition will require significant technological and political support to succeed. Fortunately, a growing number of innovators are adopting and/or developing tools to expand the number of medium- and heavy-duty electric vehicles on the road — ultimately reducing harmful pollution and preserving a clean, reliable and equitable electric grid.

A smarter way to access energy

The cost of charging an electric vehicle can be high, especially for commercial customers who manage large fleets. As an illustration, the battery capacity of an electric bus is typically about 200-300 kilowatts (kWh), versus the Chevy Bolt, which has a capacity of 60 kWh. To adequately charge a heavy-duty vehicle in a reasonable amount of time, rapid chargers are needed, which can cause spikes in demand and lead to high energy costs for customers.

Fortunately, some utilities have developed a solution: a pricing mechanism that charges customers less for energy when demand is lowest – typically around midday, when there is abundant solar energy generation. Therefore, companies that charge vehicles when energy rates are lowest can reap huge economic and environmental benefits.

Rebates, incentives and lower costs

Currently, there are multitude of other programs that can help offset the cost of vehicles and infrastructure. For example, all of the major utilities in California now have programs and proposals that help ensure the state is developing charging stations to guarantee fleets can charge at their existing depots and have sufficient access to public charging stations. Another California program provides rebates to vehicle purchasers at the time of sale.

The New York utility Con Edison also recently expanded their SmartCharge program in order to encourage the purchase and strategic use of medium and heavy-duty vehicles. Fleet owners who take advantage of these programs, and the policy makers who develop them both play critical roles in reducing the up-front costs associated with electric vehicles.

Embracing technological innovations

A number of emerging technologies can also save companies money and ensure a clean, reliable grid. Some tech can help vehicles dispatch energy they have charged, but are not using, back to the grid and generate new revenue streams for companies. Others, like mobile apps and smart charging stations, can help ease the complexities of charging vehicles in off-peak hours. Embracing these innovative tools can give fleet owners a competitive edge when switching to electric vehicles.

The smartest, most innovative trucking companies successfully manage their fleets as a form of energy storage, take advantage of rebates and incentives, embrace innovation, and provide benefits where they are needed most. As we strive to transition to a much-needed, electrified transportation sector, companies and policy makers are increasingly proving that they are finding ways to make this shift work financially and environmentally.

Over the next several months, we will be profiling the innovators – ranging from small technology developers to long-haul national trucking companies — who are taking advantage of these tools to make the transition to cleaner energy possible.

This article was first found at the Environmental Defence Fund and written By Larissa Koehler

Spot Rates Track Upward in June

Spot truckload rates for van and refrigerated freight hit their highest national averages since January during the week ending June 23 despite lower load-to-truck ratios, said DAT Solutions, which operates the industry’s largest load board network.

The number of truck posts on the DAT network of load boards increased 3.5% while the number of loads declined 2% compared to the previous week.

National average spot rates for the month, through June 23:

  • Van: $1.90/mile, 11 cents above the May average
  • Reefer: $2.25/mile, 10 cents higher
  • Flatbed: $2.30/mile, 2 cents higher

Van trends: The national average van load-to-truck ratio fell from 3.0 to 2.6 although freight availability on the Top 100 van lanes on DAT RateView remained solid last week. Combined volume on these lanes is up 22% compared to the same period a year ago, although spot rates are lower year over year: indeed, the spread between truckload contract rates and spot rates is near a historic high.

Where van rates are rising: The average spot van rate strengthened out of Los Angeles ($2.35/mile, up 5 cents) and Stockton, Calif. ($2.06/mile, up 5 cents), compared to the previous week but volumes were softer, perhaps signaling a winding down of supply chain managers moving freight to beat potential tariff increases. Key van-lane rates on the spot market:

  • Stockton to Seattle, up 16 cents to $2.79/mile
  • Los Angeles to Phoenix, up 11 cents to $2.80/mile
  • Atlanta to Miami, up 12 cents to $2.65/mile

Flatbed trends: Spot flatbed freight volumes increased 3% last week and, at 19.0, the national average flatbed load-to-truck ratio was marginally higher compared to the previous week.ADVERTISING

Where rates are rising: Raleigh, N.C., stands out for having gained 11.6% in the average outbound rate during the last month and hitting $2.94/mile last week. Outbound flatbed volumes were up 41% there as well.

In Las Vegas, flatbed volumes surged 51% last week and several key lanes saw rates jump:

  • Las Vegas to Sacramento, up 55 cents to $2.92/mile
  • Las Vegas to Phoenix, up 44 cents to $3.15/mile
  • Las Vegas to Los Angeles, up 30 cents to $2.91/mile

Photo: DAT Solutions

DAT Trendlines is a weekly snapshot of month-to-date national average rates from DAT RateView, which provides real-time reports on spot market and contract rates, as well as historical rate and capacity trends. The RateView database is comprised of more than $60 billion in freight payments. DAT load boards average 1.2 million load posts searched per business day.

This article was first found at FleetOwner.Com and written by Fleet Owner Staff 

Act Research Trucking Index Shows Nearly Across-The-Board Declines

COLUMBUS, Ind. — The latest release of ACT’s For-Hire Trucking Index showed nearly across-the-board declines, with capacity being the lone exception.

The Pricing Index fell considerably to 38.8, in May on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, the lowest in survey history, from 45.4 in April.

The Volume Index dropped further into negative territory hitting 46.7 (SA), from 49.5 in April. Fleet productivity/utilization slipped to 46.0 in May on a seasonally adjusted basis down from 49.4 in April, and capacity growth increased to 54.6, from April’s 54.3 reading.

“May’s Pricing Index was the fourth consecutive negative number after 30 straight months of expansion. This confirms our expectation that the annual bid season is not going well for truckers,” said Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s vice president and senior analyst. “We continue to believe rates are under pressure from weak freight volumes and strong capacity growth.”

Volume in May fell for the sixth time in the past seven months, Denover said.

“The softness coincides with several other recent freight metrics, with the drop likely due in part to rapid growth of private fleets and the slowdown in the industrial sector of the economy,” he said. “The supply-demand balance reading loosened to 42.1, from 45.3 in April. The past seven consecutive readings have shown a deterioration in the supply-demand balance, with May the largest yet.”

The ACT Freight Forecast provides quarterly forecasts for the direction of volumes and contract rates through 2020 and annual forecasts through 2021 for the truckload, less-than-truckload and intermodal segments of the transportation industry.

For the truckload spot market, the report provides forecasts for the next 12 months.

ACT is a publisher of new and used commercial vehicle (CV) industry data, market analysis and forecasting services for the North American market, as well as the U.S. tractor-trailer market and the China CV market. ACT’s CV services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, major trucking and logistics firms, as well as the banking and investment community in North America, Europe, and China.

This article was first found at TheTrucker.Com, and written by The Trucker News Staff 

Truckers Say Amazon’s New Logistics Empire Is Being Underpinned by Low, ‘Ridiculous’ Rates

  • Amazon leased 10,000 branded trailers to haul your Prime deliveries.
  • It launched its own freight brokerage service in late 2016 or early 2017, according to a recent FreightWaves report. Freight brokers match shipments with truckers who can move the goods.
  • But the truckers who are driving your Amazon packages across the country told Business Insider that Amazon pays too little for them to justify working with the company.
  • And trucking executives told FreightWaves that contracts with Amazon are “heavily one-sided” towards the e-commerce company.
  • Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.

In April, Amazon launched a website that allowed truckers to take jobs driving Amazon packages in Prime-branded trailers across the country. Scott Leckliter, an Iowa-based independent trucker, checked it out.

And he was surprised at how low the rates were.

“As long as you pay me market value, I’m good. I don’t need astronomical numbers,” Leckliter told Business Insider. “But they were lower than that and it was considerable.”

According to a recent report from FreightWaves , Amazon’s rates in the spot market which is whenretailers and manufacturers buy trucking capacity as they need it, rather than through a contract are on average 18.4% lower than rates posted on DAT , one of the largest broker boards in the country.

“It was just not gonna work for me,” Leckliter said. “It was not as profitable as working with a different broker who is going to pay market value.”

Trucking companies are wary of Amazon, too.Daniel Lacroix, who is the director of safety and compliance at Franklin, Massachusetts-based Regency Transportation, told Business Insider that he wasn’t interested in working with Amazon after seeing the rates offered.

“We didn’t make it past the initial bid process because the rates were just ridiculous,” Lacroix said. “I love Amazon.I get all of my stuff off of Amazon, but I don’t want to do business with them.”

Amazon declined to comment.

Amazon’s low freight rates are happening amid a serious dip in trucking prices industry-wide.

The amount of loads on the spot market fell by 62.6% in May year over year , and ratesfor van loads sank 20% in May year over year, according to DAT .Lexington, Kentucky-based owner-operator Chad Boblett said some truck drivers are seeing a “bloodbath.”

“We cannot continue driving shipping costs down,” one trucking company said in the FreightWaves report. “Where are the antitrust laws? Amazon is becoming a monopoly. Small companies will not be able to compete.”

Trucking executives are wary of working too closely with Amazon

Outside of picking up quick loads on the company’s new freight board, many trucking executives don’t like entering into contracts with Amazon. They say contracts with Amazon are “heavily one-sided” towards the e-commerce behemoth, according to the FreightWaves report.

That means rates can be too low to turn a profit, but it can also mean that the company demands so much capacity that it overwhelms a company’s network.

“Amazon contracts are pretty demanding,” Satish Jindel, the SJ Consulting Group’s principal consultant, previously told Business Insider . “Because they’re growing so rapidly, they can suck up a lot more of your capacity that you planned to make available to them.”

And, when Amazon suddenly shifts its logistics strategies, the company is at risk of losing a major customer that it may have grown dependent on.

“Amazon is really trying to monopolize the transportation side and dictate their own terms,” Lacroix of Regency told Business Insider. “People can choose if they want to work with them or not. But some people are going into the (trucking) business (to work with Amazon), thenthey realize there’s not enough money to operate with them.”

XPO Logistics, which is among the country’s largest logistics players, said in Feb. that the company will lose some $600 million in revenues as its “largest customer” (believed to be Amazon) begins to in-house some trucking and logistics operations.

Amazon has been shifting more and more packages to its in-house delivery network of trains, planes, delivery vans, trucks, and ocean freighters.Amazon’s worldwide shipping costs have grown fifteenfold from 2009 to 2018. Net sales increased by sevenfold in the same time.

Amazon says its in-house network is better and more cost-efficient. Many observers say Amazon is also building a third-party logistics company that will someday compete against FedEx and UPS.

“Amazon is making a shrewd move here in saying, ‘Look, I can build this myself and I have the capability to deliver this myself,'” AT Kearney vice president Joshua Brogan previously told Business Insider of Amazon’s logistics moves.

But for most truckers, the e-commerce company isn’t the ideal partner. Leckliter said most other truckers he knows tend to stay away.

“There are a few that work with them,” Leckliter said. “Then they go whine when something doesn’t work with them.”

This article was first at Business Insider

Pennsylvania Trucking Company Falls Victim to Ransomware Attack

A large trucking company based in Pennsylvania recently was hit by a ransomware attack that impacted network communication systems.

On Monday, June 17, trucking company A. Duie Pyle announced that the company had been targeted by a ransomware attack. Ransomeware is a type of malware that typically threatens to prevent a company from accessing their data unless they pay a certain amount of money.

The company said that its core operating systems and backups were not invaded or compromised, and that there was no data extracted from these systems.

The company issued a statement on their team’s response to the attack:

While all businesses in our country are at risk for these type of attacks, and our turn came this weekend, we are very proud of our Pyle Team’s around the clock response to this intrusion. We thank you for your past and continuing support, and while we expect there may be some competitive attempts to exploit this occurrence, we trust we can count on your on-going support of our Pyle Team.

The company also said that the attack had minimal impact on operations: “All Pyle LTL, Dedicated, Warehousing and Brokerage Services are up and operating and conducting business effectively.”

A. Duie Pyle reported on Wednesday afternoon that their team had restored email services. As of Wednesday afternoon, several features on the company’s website remained down.

This article was first found at CDLLIFE

Navistar to Build Next-Gen Diesels at Alabama Engine Plant

Navistar announced a $125 million investment in its Huntsville, Alabama, engine plant as part of a plan to begin producing next-generation big-bore diesel engines developed with its European partner, Traton, in the future.

Navistar makes International brand diesel engines at the plant, and plans to make the new investments over the next three years.

The principal engine currently built at Navistar’s Huntsville plant is the International A26, a 12.4L big-bore engine offered in Class 8 on-highway trucks such as the International LT Series and RH Series, as well as in vocational trucks such as the International HV Series and HX Series.

According to local news reports, part of the expansion is relocating to Huntsville a gear box assembly line.

In 2017, Navistar and VW told reporters that the two companies would collaborate on a fully integrated, next-generation diesel big bore powertrains for North America, launching in 2021. It also said at the time that it expects to be in a position to launch its first medium-duty electric powered vehicle for the U.S. and Canadian markets in late 2019 or early 2020. 

“Over the last two decades, the state of Alabama has been a wonderful partner for Navistar as we have developed and produced big-bore engines and other products in the state,” said Persio Lisboa, Navistar’s executive vice president and chief operating officer. “Today, we are excited to have the opportunity to expand our presence in Alabama, while adding to our array of next-generation products.”

In 2014, as part of its turnaround efforts, the company announced it was moving its mid-range engine production from Huntsville to its Melrose Park, Illinois, plant.

This article was first found at Trucking Info, and was written by HDT Staff

Freight Slowdown Flashes Warning Sign

Last year Azmi Kiswani was hiring truck drivers to keep pace with shippers clamoring to move goods in a booming market. Now there’s too little freight to keep them all busy.

Kiswani is vice president at Kiswani National, a South Holland trucking company with nearly $30 million in revenue and 200 employees, 150 of them drivers. Around mid-February, the company saw volume drop, which was normal. But the flood of holiday merchandise that should have arrived by now hasn’t materialized, which isn’t. Drivers have been working just three or four days per week since March.

“You’re going from an extreme of so much freight on the market that nobody knows what to do, to 2019, and it’s like, where’s all the freight?” he says. “You’re going from hot to cold.”

A suite of factors combined in 2018 to goose the freight market to record levels, from customers stocking up before tariffs took effect to new governmental regulation mandating electronic logging devices. Trucking companies across the country hired drivers and added trucks to meet the surge.

Demand cooled shortly after the new capacity came online, causing ripple effects through the industry. Truck driver recruitment ads have vanished from the radio as hiring slowed. Excess capacity is pushing down short-term shipping rates, squeezing companies that spent heavily on new equipment.

Shrinking shipments signal trouble ahead for the national economy, and Chicago in particular. Transportation and warehousing, including rail, truck and third-party logistics companies, employs nearly 230,000 in the region. A quarter of the country’s freight originates, terminates or passes through here.

A healthy economy and the growth of e-commerce helped fuel last year’s freight boom, says market analyst Peggy Dorf at DAT Solutions, an online freight marketplace. So did oil drilling that exceeded pipeline capacity, forcing that oil onto tanker trucks, plus shipments of equipment to extract it from the ground. Demand for drivers got a further boost from the rollout of electronic logging devices in December 2017, devices that force drivers to stop work after they’ve driven the hours allowable by law.

Shippers also scrambled to bring more goods into the country before tariffs on imports took effect in July and August, with more threatened by Jan. 1, 2019. (Tariffs eventually were raised to 25 percent on $200 billion of Chinese goods on May 10.) So trucking companies saw a bump as customers filled warehouses with goods they might otherwise have ordered in 2019.

With high demand and tight capacity, shippers paid up for space on trucks and rail cars. Spot market rates, the fluctuating prices that carriers charge shippers to move goods immediately, peaked at $2.32 a mile in June 2018.

Since then, oil industry shipments have slipped alongside oil prices, shippers with fully stocked warehouses have cut back on new orders and the one-time effects of electronic logging have played out. By last month, the spot rate had dropped 23 percent to $1.79 as a supply-demand imbalance weakened carriers’ bargaining power.

RAIL SHIPMENTS DOWN

Railroad volumes declined 2.4 percent in the first five months of 2019, compared to the same period last year, according to the Association of American Railroads. The Cass Freight Index, which measures all domestic freight modes, shows shipments have dropped for five straight months, while data from the American Trucking Association shows over-the-road freight tonnage falling in February and March before rebounding in April.

Chicago-based freight brokerage Echo Global Logistics has seen its stock price fall 44 percent in the last 12 months since peaking at $36.75 in September, to $20.55. Chief Operating Officer Dave Menzel said on an April 24 earnings call that “capacity is relatively loose and overall demand has been muted.”

Not everyone is worried. In a note titled “The Death of Freight Has Been Greatly Exaggerated,” Cowen analyst Jason Seidl writes that 2019 is suffering from the comparison to 2018’s historic highs and comparisons to larger timespans “shows that the 2019 data isn’t nearly as bad as people are making it out to be.” Spot rates in Cowen’s proprietary index are negative year over year, but still up 5 percent against the index’s January 2017 baseline.

There’s also been outsize impact this year from the “extenuating circumstances” of trade and weather, Seidl writes. Supply chains are moving out of China to avoid tariffs, forcing companies to find new ports, new railroads and new trucking companies. Cold, wet weather has dampened the need to move produce, and “one can understand why the market for charcoal for barbecues or gardening supplies hasn’t been as robust as usual.” Seidl predicts demand will return to normal seasonal levels as the weather improves.

That would be good news to drivers like Ahmad Mohammed. Kiswani’s 28-year-old cousin has driven commercially for seven years. Employee drivers can make $1,500 a week, or $78,000 a year, he says, and drivers who own their own trucks make more. However, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics puts the median annual pay for a tractor-trailer driver in metro Chicago at $49,000.

Last year dispatchers sometimes pushed Mohammed to take loads when he wanted to take the day off, so when the slowdown started, at first he enjoyed the break. That ended when the break stretched to a week, then two.

“Every week it’s, ‘We’ll see what happens next week,’ ” he says. “There’s just not enough loads to go around.”

Transportation sees the booms and busts before everyone else, Kiswani says.

“The recession was supposed to hit in 2020,” he says. “Could it be coming earlier? I think it is.”Letter

This article was first found at ChicagoBusiness.com and written by; CLAIRE BUSHEY